Trump vs. Biden: is the incumbent underdog gonna make it, again?

I believe Trump’s gonna win the re-election, polls notwithstanding. A quick recap: last time around, I was one of the first few people to anticipate Trump’s victory, just days after he entered the 2015 Primary race. Being Italian I couldn’t vote, but -next best thing- I at least bet on the outcome (they had to pay my bet 31-to-1). I gave some of the reasons in advance, although I postponed indefinitely explaining the real, deepest motivation for my conviction. This time I’m really not 100% convinced: I still have some limited respect for the sense of decency of some of the mainstream pollsters, despite the fact that after the 2016…

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The day when FiveThirtyEight and the pollsters bombed

Trump won, 538 experts lost.

This is a story of people looking down on you. More than that, this is a story of fake scientific data and deception. This is about those who tried to control the result of the election. And lost anyway. I’ve been dreaming of writing this very article for months. All those experts, day after day condescendingly belittling people like me, who wouldn’t be convinced to accept the reality of their data…   Now it’s time for a little revenge. A sweet opportunity to unload all the frustration of the last months. They won’t mind: they still have all the clout and visibility in the world, plus they have all the…

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