Trump vs. Biden: is the incumbent underdog gonna make it, again?

I believe Trump’s gonna win the re-election, polls notwithstanding. A quick recap: last time around, I was one of the first few people to anticipate Trump’s victory, just days after he entered the 2015 Primary race. Being Italian I couldn’t vote, but -next best thing- I at least bet on the outcome (they had to pay my bet 31-to-1). I gave some of the reasons in advance, although I postponed indefinitely explaining the real, deepest motivation for my conviction. This time I’m really not 100% convinced: I still have some limited respect for the sense of decency of some of the mainstream pollsters, despite the fact that after the 2016…

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Anti-Establishment: sometimes it means NO to reform. The Italian Referendum case

Matteo Renzi perplexed

2ND UPDATE – DEC 05 – RENZI RESIGNS. FINAL RESULT: NO 59.11%, YES 40.89%   To be honest, since the result was already in the bank, after the initial projections I serenely went to bed. Here we are, the morning after a result that is slightly better than I predicted (57-58% in my FB wild guess). Kudos to Renzi for resigning immediately: this is not typical of Italian politicians, who tended to find excuses to stay in charge even after a defeat. He kept his promise instead.   Our future remains very uncertain, Italian politics is a mess, to put it mildly. We’ve got a PD (Democratic Party) that is still…

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