Trump vs. Biden: is the incumbent underdog gonna make it, again?

I believe Trump’s gonna win the re-election, polls notwithstanding. A quick recap: last time around, I was one of the first few people to anticipate Trump’s victory, just days after he entered the 2015 Primary race. Being Italian I couldn’t vote, but -next best thing- I at least bet on the outcome (they had to pay my bet 31-to-1). I gave some of the reasons in advance, although I postponed indefinitely explaining the real, deepest motivation for my conviction. This time I’m really not 100% convinced: I still have some limited respect for the sense of decency of some of the mainstream pollsters, despite the fact that after the 2016…

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